台风“卡努”的数值模拟试验-海洋预报

台风“卡努”的数值模拟试验

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2006·2006·第二期（1-9）

摘要：

台风“卡努”(Khanun,200515)是近年来登陆台风中给沿途造成重大灾害的台风之一。本文以第五代中尺度气象模式(MM5V3)为基础,采用三重嵌套的高分辨率网格设置,分别用四种初始化方案,对台风“卡努”进行了数值模拟试验,分析和探讨了模式的初始化对预报效果的影响。结果表明,MM5模式对台风的模拟预报具有一定的能力,按照常规的方法利用Bogus人造台风涡旋对初始场进行调整以及加入常规观测资料,路径和强度的预报效果都有明显的改进;再加入Quikscat卫星海面风非常规资料,能够减小台风路径预报逐小时预报误差,台风的强度预报也有所改善。

Typhoon Khanun(200515)is one of the landfall typhoon which made the seriousdisaster on the way in recent years.This paper is based upon the fifth-generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5V3),using high resolution triple-nested domain.We haveexperimented with the typhoon Khanun by four kinds of initialization respectively,analyzedand discussed the influence of the initialization of the model to the forecast effect.Theresults show that the MM5 model has the certain ability to the simulation forecast oftyphoon.In according to the usual way,bogussing vortex and the routine observation datais put into the initial field of MM5,the effect of track and intensity forecast can beimproved obviously.When the unconventional data such as the quikscat satellite sea surfacewind is put into the initial field,the forecast track error can be reduced,the effect of theintensity forecast can be ameliorated too.

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