97ENSO事件的发展和预测-海洋预报

97ENSO事件的发展和预测

单位：1. 北京大学地球物理系北京;
2. 兰州大学大气科学系兰州

分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1998·15·第一期（1-9）

摘要：

本文通过1997年ENSO事件发展过程的分析总结出以下的主要特点和预报信息:(ⅰ)行星尺度的海气耦合和局地海气耦合同时起作用,形成了太平洋中部和东部的同时增温;(ⅱ)赤道东太平洋海温异常的时间序列中存在着比较稳定的年际和年代际变化规律,这一规律较好地预示了1997年的ENSO事件;(ⅲ)赤道对流层大气纬圈平均距平的西风异常比赤道东太平洋海洋增温早1年左右的时间;(ⅳ)引进Hadley环流异常改进的Zebiak-Cane模式在引入赤道大气对流层纬圈风异常后可成功地预报出1997年的ENSO事件。

There were some major characteristics and forecasting signals during the development process of ENSO event occurred in 1997 as follows:(ⅰ)the equatorial central eastern Pacific warming in 1997 was due to the results of both the planetary and local atmosphere ocean interactions;(ⅱ)there existed obviously interannual and interdecadal variations in the time series of the equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the interannual variation could well be used to predict the ENSO event occurred in 1997;(ⅲ)the signal of mean westerly wind anomaly in the eqatorial zonal troposhyere was earlier than that of the equatorial eastern Pacific SST anomaly in 1-year advance;(ⅳ)the improved Zebiak-Cane model by introducing anomalous Hadley circulation could also predict the ENSO event occurred in 1997 when the zonal wind anomaly was taken in the model.

参考文献：

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