越浪预测研究综述及展望-海洋预报

越浪预测研究综述及展望

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
3. 浙江省海洋科学院, 浙江杭州 310012;
4. 自然资源部海洋空间资源管理技术重点实验室, 浙江杭州 310012

关键词：越浪量越浪预测风险分析预警系统

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第五期（98-106）

摘要：

回顾总结了现有的越浪预测方法和目前开展的越浪风险预警研究工作。结果表明：越浪预测工具应用最广泛的是基于物理模型试验建立的各种经验计算公式；近年来，数值模拟和人工神经网络等机器学习算法也得到越来越多的发展和应用；此外，越浪风险量化分析和评估也逐渐成为越浪研究的重点。最后展望提出了加强越浪预报和建立风险预警系统对沿海风险管理的重要性。

This paper reviews available methods for prediction of wave overtopping and researches on early warning of wave overtopping risk. In general, various empirical formulae based on physical model tests are widely used to predict the mean overtopping discharge. In recent years, numerical modeling and machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks have also been developed and used. Besides, quantitative analysis and assessment of overtopping risk have also been paid more attention. Finally, this paper proposes the importance of establishing overtopping forecast and risk early warning system in coastal risk management.

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