福建省海浪灾害危险性评估-海洋预报

福建省海浪灾害危险性评估

作者：刘艳贵¹ 徐瑞² 3 侯放² 3 邢闯² 3 李本霞² 3 张晓辉¹ 傅望安¹ 王海明¹ 刘鑫⁴ 尹铁男⁴

单位：1. 华能(浙江)能源开发有限公司, 浙江杭州 310006;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
4. 中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司, 北京 102209

关键词：福建海浪危险性评估海浪再分析数据集 WAVEWATCH Ⅲ

分类号：P731.22

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第一期（21-30）

摘要：

选用美国国家环境预报中心的全球再分析风场为驱动风场，以WAVEWATCH Ⅲ海浪模式为基础，采用全球-西北太平洋-中国近海海区三层嵌套方案构建了1990—2020年海浪再分析数据集；利用该数据集，分析了福建省近海海浪灾害强度和发生频率，并计算了典型重现期的海浪波高。结果表明：福建省海域海浪有效波高分布具有明显的季节变化；因为地形的影响，台湾海峡中部区域的巨浪出现频率高于其他区域。

Using the wind fields from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, this paper analyzes the intensity and frequency of offshore wave disasters in Fujian Province, as well as the wave height in the typical return period. The results show that effective wave height in the coastal waters of Fujian Province has significant seasonal variation. Owing to topographic effect, the central Taiwan Strait areas have a higher frequency of huge waves in comparison with other areas. The analysis results can provide important references for coastal marine function zoning, site selection and design of large offshore construction projects, and marine disaster prevention and reduction.

参考文献：

[1] DYKES J D, ROGERS W E. WAVEWATCH Ⅲ (registered trademark): transition to naval operations[J]. Wavewatch Ⅲ Transition to Naval Operations, 2013.
[2] LI J G, SAULTER A. Unified global and regional wave model on a multi-resolution grid[J]. Ocean Dynamics, 2014, 64(11): 1657-1670.
[3] BUNNEY C, SAULTER A. An ensemble forecast system for prediction of Atlantic-UK wind waves[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2015, 96: 103-116.
[4] 周良明, 吴伦宇, 郭佩芳, 等. 应用WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式对南海的波浪场进行数值计算、统计分析和研究[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2007, 26(5): 1-8. ZHOU L M, WU L Y, GUO P F, et al. Simulation and study of wave in South China Sea using WAVEWATCH -Ⅲ [J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2007, 26(5): 1-8.
[5] MENTASCHI L, BESIO G, CASSOLA F, et al. Performance evaluation of Wavewatch Ⅲ in the Mediterranean Sea[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2015, 90: 82-94.
[6] GERASIMOS K, PAPADOPOULOS A, KATSAFADOS P, et al. A 2-year intercomparison of the WAM-Cycle4 and the WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ wave models implemented within the Mediterranean Sea[J]. Mediterranean Marine Science, 2011, 12(1): 129-152.
[7] 江丽芳, 张志旭, 齐义泉, 等. WAVEWATCH Ⅲ和SWAN模式在南海北部海域海浪模拟结果的对比分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2011, 30(5): 27-37. JIANG L F, ZHANG Z X, QI Y Q, et al. Simulations of the northern South China Sea using WAVEWATCH Ⅲ and SWAN[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2011, 30(5): 27-37.
[8] 郭衍游, 侯一筠, 杨永增, 等. 利用WaveWatch Ⅲ建立东中国海区域海浪同化系统[J]. 高技术通讯, 2006, 16(10): 1092-1096. GUO Y Y, HOU Y J, YANG Y Z, et al. To build a regional ocean wave data assimilation system of eastern China seas with WaveWatch Ⅲ[J]. Chinese High Technology Letters, 2006, 16(10): 1092-1096.
[9] 王娟娟, 李本霞, 高志一, 等. 中国海的极端海浪强度变化及归因分析[J]. 科学通报, 2021, 66(19): 2455-2467. WANG J J, LI B X, GAO Z Y, et al. Trend and attribution analysis of extreme wave intensity in the China Sea[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2021, 66(19): 2455-2467.
[10] WANG J J, LI B X, GAO Z Y, et al. Comparison of ECMWF significant wave height forecasts in the China Sea with Buoy data [J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2019, 34(6): 1693-1704.
[11] SAHA S, MOORTHI S, WU X R, et al. The NCEP climate forecast system version 2[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27(6): 2185-2208.
[12] RASCLE N, ARDHUIN F. A global wave parameter database for geophysical applications. Part 2: Model validation with improved source term parameterization [J]. Ocean Modelling, 2013, 70: 174-188.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】