1949—2021年登陆我国热带气旋历史规律研究-海洋预报

1949—2021年登陆我国热带气旋历史规律研究

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
3. 河海大学海洋学院, 江苏南京 210024

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第三期（80-89）

摘要：

基于1949—2021年中国气象局最佳热带气旋路径数据，按照相应规则筛选出登陆我国的热带气旋及登陆位置，分析研究登陆热带气旋的数量、强度、时间等特征和变化规律，并具体分析沿海各地区登陆热带气旋的变化规律。结果表明：1949—2021年登陆我国的热带气旋数量呈略微减小趋势，有明显的高峰、低谷期，2018年后处于一个较低的水平；热带气旋登陆时的强度主要集中于强热带风暴、台风级别，登陆月份主要集中于7—9月；1949—2021年登陆我国的低强度热带气旋有减小趋势，而高强度热带气旋有增大趋势，说明登陆的高强度热带气旋将会越来越多，这可能与全球变暖以及热带扩展有关；1949—2021年登陆热带气旋位置在纬向上有轻微的南落，经向上无明显变化，这和前人的研究结论不一致，可能是由于选取的数据源以及时间跨度不一致造成的；我国沿海各地区热带气旋登陆频次最高的是广东地区，其次是台湾、海南、福建地区，大体上从南到北逐渐减少；台湾地区高强度登陆热带气旋占比最多，其次为浙江、福建、广东、海南地区；长期来看，广东、台湾地区年热带气旋登陆频次呈现减小趋势，浙江、福建地区呈现上升趋势。

Based on the best tropical cyclone track data from the China Meteorological Administration from 1949 to 2021, tropical cyclones that landed in China are selected according to the rules in this article. The characteristics and variations of the number, intensity, and time of tropical cyclones landing in China are analyzed and studied with specific focus on the variations of tropical cyclones landing in different coastal areas. The results show that from 1949 to 2021, the number of tropical cyclones landing in China shows a slight decreasing trend with obvious peaks and troughs, which maintains at a low level after 2018. The intensity of tropical cyclones at landing time concentrates on strong tropical storms and typhoons, and the landing months mainly limits in JulySeptember. There is a decreasing/increasing trend in the number of low-intensity/high-intensity landing tropical cyclones, indicating that global warming and tropical expansion may lead to more and more high-intensity landing tropical cyclones in China. The locations of tropical cyclones landing in China show a slight southward movement without significant change in longitude, which is inconsistent with previous researches partly due to different data sources and time spans. The provinces with highest number of landing tropical cyclone are Guangdong, followed by Taiwan, Hainan, and Fujian. Taiwan has the highest proportion of high-intensity landing tropical cyclones, followed by Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan. The annual numbers of tropical cyclone landing in Guangdong and Taiwan show a decreasing trend, while those in Zhejiang and Fujian show an increasing trend.

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