Niño海区海表温度与1949—2022年登陆中国热带气旋的相关性分析研究-海洋预报

Niño海区海表温度与1949—2022年登陆中国热带气旋的相关性分析研究

单位：韶关学院旅游与地理学院, 广东韶关 512005

分类号：P731.11

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第六期（62-70）

摘要：

为研究Niño海区海表温度与登陆中国的热带气旋（TC）的相关性，利用1949—2022年登陆我国的 TC数据，在探讨登陆 TC时空分布的基础上，分析海温对登陆 TC的影响。结果表明：登陆我国的TC年际波动大，总体呈下降趋势；受海温影响，台风级及以上级别的TC登陆频数在9月最大，其余级别均在8月最大；TC的源地位置、纬度与海岸线走向是影响登陆我国TC空间分布差异的重要因素；Niño各海区海温及海温距平值与登陆我国的TC均呈现极显著的相关关系，但存在2个月的滞后期。

The correlation between the Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and the tropical cyclones landed in China during 1949—2022 is studied through analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of the landing locations. The results show that tropical cyclones landed in China have large interannual variations with a general decreasing trend. Affected by SST, tropical cyclones at typhoon class and above have the largest landing frequency in September, while those below typhoon class have the largest landing frequency in August. Original location, landing latitude and coastline shape are important factors affecting the spatial differentiation of tropical cyclones landing locations. The Niño SST and their anomalies have significant correlation with the tropical cyclones landed in China, but with obvious time lag of two months.

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